• Climate Change and Agriculture
in the United States: Effects and Adaptation*New
Increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), rising temperatures, and altered precipitation patterns will affect agricultural productivity. Increases in temperature coupled with more variable precipitation will reduce productivity of crops, and these effects will outweigh the benefits of increasing carbon dioxide. Effects will vary among annual and perennial crops, and regions of the United States; however, all production systems will be affected to some degree by climate change. – February 2013 (pdf 11.8MB)
• 2013 National Climate Assessment Factsheet*New
The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is an important resource for understanding and communicating climate change science and impacts in the United States. It informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates scientific information from multiple sources and sectors to highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. – 2013 (pdf 935KB)
• Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector*New
The forest sector technical report is a sector-wide scientific assessment of the current condition and likely future condition of forest resources in the United States relative to climatic variability and change. The assessment provides technical input to the National Climate Assessment (NCA) and serves as a framework for managing forest resources in the United States. The report provides technical input to the 2013 NCA developed by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). – December 2012 (pdf 5.79MB)
• History, Ideology, and U.S. Climate Policy: Beyond the Orthodxies of Left and Right
As this paper is being written, the United States is almost certainly incurring higher costs from its climate policies than it is from climate change. Confused nostrums dominate the public debate about how best to reduce the threat of climate change. The president asserts that subsidies to more costly sources of energy are the key to “clean” growth. – December 2011 (pdf 0.99MB)
• Arctic Report Card 2011
The Arctic Report Card considers a wide range of environmental observations throughout the Arctic, and is updated annually. A major conclusion of the 2011 Report is that there are now a sufficient number of years of data to indicate a shift in the Arctic Ocean system since 2006... – November, 23 2011 (pdf 7.33MB)
• Global Warming’s Six Americas in May 2011
This study was conducted by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. This report extends and updates an ongoing program of research analyzing Americans’ interpretations of and responses to climate change. The research segments the American public into six audiences that range along a spectrum of concern and issue engagement from the Alarmed, who are convinced of the reality and danger of climate change, and who are highly supportive of personal and political actions to mitigate the threat, to the Dismissive, who are equally convinced that climate change is not occurring and that no response should be made. – May 2011 (pdf 1.64MB)
• Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region
This report represents the first cooperative study on the impacts of climate change and adaptation in the South Caucasus involving all three countries in the region – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The study has considered four areas for investigation... – 2011 (pdf 11.7MB)
• National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces
In response to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), the National Research Council appointed a committee operating under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board to study the national security implications of climate change for U.S. naval forces. In conducting its study, the committee found that even the most moderate current trends in climate, if continued, will present new national security challenges for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. While the timing, degree, and consequence of future climate change impacts remain uncertain, many changes are already under way in regions around the world, such as in the Arctic, and call for action by U.S. naval leadership in response... – 2011 (pdf 2.15MB)
• Arctic Report Card: Update for 2010
In 2010, it is clear that the Arctic is experiencing the impacts of a prolonged and amplified warming trend, highlighted with many record-setting events. Not surprisingly, the impact of this warming is most evident in the dramatic losses that have been observed in the ice covers that define the region. Since the loss of these ice covers serves to further feed the warming trend, the expectation is that warming will continue. This makes it increasingly unlikely (at least for the foreseeable future) that the Arctic will return to conditions that were considered normal in the later part of the 20th century. Instead, it is very likely that Arctic climate warming will continue and we will continue to see records set in years to come. – October 19, 2010 (pdf 7.93MB)
• British Antarctic Survey: Ice Cores and Climate Change
Slices of ice core, drilled from the depths of the Earth’s ice sheets reveal details of the planet’s past climate. Ice cores contain information about past temperature, and about many other aspects of the environment. Crucially, the ice encloses small bubbles of air that contain a sample of the atmosphere – from these it is possible to measure directly the past concentration of gases (including carbon dioxide and methane) in the atmosphere. – September 2010 (pdf 472KB)
• Lost in Translation: Closing the Gap Between Climate Science and National Security Policy
National security leaders now recognize that global climate change is a matter of national security and may even be a defining security challenge of the 21st century. Nonetheless, some national security professionals have yet to fully conceptualize how climate change could impact their areas of responsibility, or whether they need to analyze potential implications at all. What is more, they currently lack the “actionable” data necessary to generate requirements, plans, strategies, training and materiel to prepare for future challenges... – April 2010 (pdf 4.01MB)
• Arctic Report Card
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Arctic Report Card site. The Arctic Report Card considers a wide range of environmental observations throughout the Arctic, and is updated annually.
• A Human Health Perspective On Climate Change
Global climate change has become one of the most visible environmental concerns of the 21st century. From pictures of polar bears clinging to melting ice floes in Alaska to dried and cracked farmland stretching into the horizon in Africa, images of the ecological impacts of climate change have become part of our combined consciousness and inspire concern and discussion about what climate change ultimately will mean to our planet. – 2010 (pdf 2.41MB)
• Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
Mexico, the countries of the Caribbean, and Central America examined in this report are at risk from the impacts of climate change in the next 20 years because they will be exposed to a greater range of climate changes and have a relatively weak adaptive capacity when compared to the world at large. – December 2009 (pdf 3.21MB)
• Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands are at risk from the impact of climate change in the next 20 years due to the region’s large and growing population, long coastlines, abundant low-lying areas, reliance on the agricultural sector, and dependence upon natural resources. This report focuses on the nations of Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. – August 2009 (pdf 575KB)
• North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
Model projections available for North Africa indicate a clear increase in temperature over the next 20 years that is expected to continue throughout the 21st century, probably at a rate higher than the estimated global average. Model simulations also suggest a drying trend in the region, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, driven by large decreases expected in summertime precipitation. – August 2009 (pdf 1.37MB)
• Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
The report, "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States," compiles years of scientific research and takes into account new data not available during the preparation of previous large national and global assessments. It was produced by a consortium of experts from13 U.S. government science agencies and from several major universities and research institutes. – June 16, 2009 (pdf 13.0MB)
• Russia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
Russia is already experiencing the impacts of climate change in the form of milder winters; melting permafrost; changing precipitation patterns; the spread of disease; and increased incidence of drought, flooding, and other extreme weather events. Many of these observed climate impacts are having concrete, negative effects on Russians’ quality of life. – April 2009 (pdf 912KB)
• India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
India is both a major greenhouse gas emitter and one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to projected climate change. The country is already experiencing changes in climate and the impacts of climate change, including water stress, heat waves and drought, severe storms and flooding, and associated negative consequences on health and livelihoods. – April 2009 (pdf 655KB)
• China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
China is well known for its size: it has the world’s largest population, the third largest land area, the fourth (nominal) or second (purchase power parity) largest economy and is the second largest primary energy producer and consumer and the largest carbon dioxide emitter. – April 2009 (pdf 754KB)
• Adaptation – An issue brief for business
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, forecasts that climate change will have significant impacts on populations and environments around the world. Furthermore, it is likely that in the absence of concerted efforts to mitigate greenhouse emissions, climate change will have negative effects on business and global markets. It will likely lead to a change in existing business models and current risk management structures. – January 2009 (pdf 628KB)
• British Antarctic Survey: The Antarctic Peninsula’s Retreating Ice Shelves
The breakout in March 2008 of the Wilkins Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula is the latest drama in a region that has experienced unprecedented warming over the last 50 years. In the past 30 years around ten floating ice shelves retreated, in some cases very little of their original area remains. The changes give us clues about the impact of climate change across Antarctica in the coming centuries. – 2009 (pdf 970KB)
• British Antarctic Survey: Antarctica and Climate Change
It is widely accepted that climate change as a result of human activity is real, happening now and will have an impact on everyone and everything on the Earth. Antarctica, and the Southern Ocean that surrounds it, affects the whole planet through its influence on the Earth’s climate system. Understanding Antarctica’s role in climate change is not only a huge scientific challenge but also an urgent priority for society. – 2009 (pdf 103KB)
• Lloyd’s 360° Risk Insight, Climate Change and Security: Risks and Opportunities for Business
The earth’s climate has always been subject to fluctuations due to a range of naturally occurring factors. But it has become increasingly evident that mankind’s activities also contribute to climatic fluctuations. This dates back to the time when organized agriculture first began but has been greatly intensified over the past two centuries as industrialisation has led to significantly increased levels of carbon emissions. – 2009 (pdf 4.94MB)
• The Most Inconvenient Truth of All: Climate Change and Indigenous People
Indigenous people are on the frontline of climate change. Living in parts of the world where its impacts are greatest and depending largely, or exclusively, on the natural environment for their livelihoods, culture and lives, they are more vulnerable to climate change than anyone else on earth... – 2009 (pdf 7.33MB)
• Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change
This Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product addresses current capabilities to integrate observations of the climate system into a consistent description of past and current conditions through the method of reanalysis. In addition, the Product assesses present capabilities to attribute causes for climate variations and trends over North America during the reanalysis period, which extends from the mid-twentieth century to the present. – December 2008 (pdf 7.33MB)
• British Antarctic Survey: Antarctica and Sea-Level Rise
Sea-level rise increases the frequency of coastal flooding events and threatens coastal populations around the world. Around 10M people each year are affected by coastal flooding. A study by the UK Met Office identifies that as populations migrate towards coastal regions, this will increase to 30M by 2080. – January 2008 (pdf 9.35KB)
• Consumers, Brands and Climate Change
Consumers are increasingly committed to tackling climate change, despite challenging economic times, and do not see any competition between climate change and the economy. The challenge now facing brands that seek to work with consumers on this issue is not whether consumers will support, but what they will support. – 2008 (pdf 1.44MB)
• The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change
Although the consequences of global climate change may seem to be the stuff of Hollywood – some imagined, dystopian future – the melting ice of the Arctic, the swamping of low lying lands, and the spreading deserts of Africa are all too real. We already live in an age of consequences, one that will increasingly be defined by the intersection of climate change and the security of nations. – November 2007 (pdf 2.64MB)
• National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces
In response to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), the National Research Council appointed a committee operating under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board to study the national security implications of climate change for U.S. naval forces. In conducting its study, the committee found that even the most moderate current trends in climate, if continued, will present new national security challenges for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. While the timing, degree, and consequence of future climate change impacts remain uncertain, many changes are already under way in regions around the world, such as in the Arctic, and call for action by U.S. naval leadership in response... – October 2007 (pdf 4.28MB)
• Climate Literacy: Essential Principles & Fundamental Concepts
This guide was developed with input from recent workshops and discussions; this guide reflects the current efforts in defining climate literacy. It is inspired in part by the work conducted by AAAS Project 2061, federal science agencies, educators and other organizations to identify essential principles and fundamental concepts for Ocean Literacy and related work in other areas of Earth systems science education. – DRAFT September 18, 2007 (pdf 3.82MB)
• National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
To better inform U.S. policymakers and the public about the threats to national security from global climate change, the CNA Corporation, a nonprofit national security analysis organization, convened a panel of retired senior military officers and national security experts and conducted an assessment of the national security implications of global climate change. In this context, we define national security to refer to the influence of climate change on geo-strategic balances and world events that could likely involve U.S. military forces or otherwise affect U.S. strategic interests anywhere in the world. – April 2007 (pdf 1.30MB)
• Global Warming and the Lost European Country
To many the North Sea is a stretch of grey uninteresting water crossed when going from England to France by plane or ship. Few people ever imagine as they make that journey that the murky waters cover a prehistoric landscape larger than the United Kingdom itself. However, people might well pause for thought if they realised that, between 10,000 and 7,000 BC, global warming raised sea levels and swallowed a vast, inhabited plain... – 2007 (pdf 2.33MB)
• The Coastal Population Explosion
Humankind is in the process of annihilating coastal and ocean ecosystems. At the root of the problem are burgeoning human numbers and their ever-growing needs. Population distribution is increasingly skewed. Recent studies have shown that the overwhelming bulk of humanity is concentrated along or near coasts on just 10% of the earth’s land surface. As of 1998, over half the population of the planet – about 3.2 billion people – lives and works in a coastal strip just 200 kilometers wide (120 miles), while a full two-thirds, 4 billion, are found within 400 kilometers of a coast... – 1999 (pdf 34.6KB)